Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 23.132612 25.191706 27.420117 30.023012 32.995233 36.301712 40.283961
2025-11-23 19.741769 22.516681 25.731305 29.777182 34.801142 40.928266 49.117103
2025-11-30 17.394328 20.540650 24.380578 29.509670 36.338968 45.364839 58.649524
2025-12-07 15.727496 19.091339 23.372845 29.381860 37.879092 49.952142 69.427984
2025-12-14 14.373437 17.836342 22.396388 29.065008 38.994299 54.041066 80.490113
2025-12-21 13.752613 17.447035 22.482641 30.168152 42.261010 61.946099 100.205817
2025-12-28 12.846571 16.563323 21.760297 29.952450 43.407082 66.607072 115.705102
2026-01-04 12.130833 15.871256 21.224639 29.920553 44.796884 71.939151 134.639764
2026-01-11 11.614398 15.413044 20.975108 30.283944 46.883273 79.019698 160.800350
2026-01-18 11.036659 14.815141 20.451080 30.118877 47.971224 84.358970 185.513551
2026-01-25 10.504911 14.244914 19.916110 29.862889 48.828943 89.409212 212.526950
2026-02-01 10.069331 13.788900 19.520368 29.795566 50.028763 95.541127 247.343594
2026-02-08 9.623077 13.296123 19.039730 29.547981 50.877631 101.236965 286.245912
2026-02-15 9.206202 12.824825 18.560537 29.254878 51.595040 106.880859 331.127817
2026-02-22 8.826984 12.390806 18.111767 28.971280 52.291068 112.736920 384.510853
2026-03-01 8.505451 12.030371 17.760978 28.836902 53.302523 119.877820 455.593729
2026-03-08 8.179900 11.645430 17.341276 28.524160 53.849034 125.860018 531.321636
2026-03-15 8.098550 11.653772 17.603467 29.595795 57.931859 144.992023 750.863183
2026-03-22 7.827401 11.332203 17.258180 29.385075 58.762514 153.366151 911.846496
2026-03-29 7.601040 11.074284 17.010400 29.353669 60.062944 164.191192 1152.646565
2026-04-05 7.442723 10.923143 16.946238 29.707040 62.478494 180.863507 1596.265244
2026-04-12 7.225535 10.660771 16.659991 29.546385 63.433280 191.956670 2066.854952
2026-04-19 7.010287 10.392288 16.346875 29.297300 64.097247 202.245380 2682.471170